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☆ Samsung's memory business will get a lift when AI PCs hit the shelves, advisory firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSamsung's memory business will get a lift when AI PCs hit the shelves, advisory firm saysOlivier Blanchard, research director at The Futurum Group, discusses Samsung's results and says the company "had a pretty rough 2023, so it's good to see them climb out of it, and climb out of it pretty quickly."

Persons: Olivier Blanchard

☆ 'It's all upside' for TSMC and other chipmakers over the next decade, advisory firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'It's all upside' for TSMC and other chipmakers over the next decade, advisory firm saysOlivier Blanchard, research director at The Futurum Group, says "it's a good time to be a chip manufacturer, and it's a really good time to be TSMC," and discusses how a Trump presidency might affect the Taiwanese chip giant's outlook.

Persons: Olivier Blanchard, Trump

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Olivier Blanchard, Washington's, Blanchard, it's, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S, Congressional, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Europe

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. US debt costs soarRates minus Growth hits budget mathCBO's long-term debt projectionsDYSFUNCTION AND EXPLOSIONThere were tinges of optimism though.

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesInflation rose in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index. Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for more than half of the increase, according to the BLS. This pared-down measure — known as "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July. The increase in monthly core CPI "is a little bump in the road," said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.

Persons: Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Greg McBride, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Scott Olson Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, AAA, BLS, Transportation, U.S . Department, Morning, Bankrate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Virginia, U.S

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.

Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ French central bank head warns against raising ECB inflation target
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France, July 9 (Reuters) - France's central bank head Francois Villeroy de Galhau pushed back on Sunday against a suggestion from some French economists to raise the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% inflation target. The aim is to bring inflation down to the 2% target by 2025, Villeroy said at an economics conference in the southern French city of Aix-en-Province. Former IMF chief economist, Frenchman Olivier Blanchard, has long called for a higher inflation target than the 2% shared by most major central banks, arguing that the increased flexibility that would provide would outweigh the costs. In response, Villeroy said that a higher inflation target was a "false good idea" and would lead to higher rather than lower borrowing costs. "If we announced our inflation target is no longer 2% but 3%, lenders would immediately demand higher interest rates, at least 1% (more)" in anticipation of higher inflation and uncertainty Villeroy said.

Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Villeroy, Frenchman Olivier Blanchard, Patrick Artus, Bruno Le Maire, Andrew Bailey, Leigh Thomas, William Schomberg, Elaine Hardcastle, Alexander Smith Organizations: Bank's, Former IMF, Veteran, French Finance, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: PROVENCE, France, French, Aix, Province, London

And while Biden’s growing list of Republican challengers differ on many issues, when it comes to the economy, they’re in agreement that Biden failed. In addition, a tight labor market has left many small businesses with ongoing hiring difficulties. Here’s what Biden can take credit for – and what he can’t. In other aspects, the labor market certainly had a boost from Biden’s fiscal policies. Since then, the American workforce has consistently outpaced the pre-pandemic workforce.

Persons: Joe Biden, “, ” Biden, Biden, Jerome Powell, ”, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, It’s, it’s, let’s, That’s Organizations: DC CNN, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, –, Congress, American, Manufacturers, Treasury Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Republicans, Fed, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Biden, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Washington, Chicago, American, United States, Ukraine, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Where consumers saw inflation, deflation in MayConsumers saw gasoline prices decline 5.6% between April and May, according to the CPI report. "Energy prices at this time last year were just absurd," Leer said. watch nowBut food and energy prices can be volatile. "The progress on core inflation has stalled out in recent months," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

Persons: Michael M, Leer, Greg McBride, They're, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumers, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bankrate Locations: Prospect, Brooklyn, New York City, U.S, Ukraine

☆ Premarket stocks: Will the debt ceiling debate finish the Fed's inflation fight?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Over the last 14 months, the Federal Reserve has taken a deliberate and economically painful approach to combating elevated inflation rates through interest rate hikes. The regional banking crisis and a possible debt-ceiling induced default on US debt could change all of that. What’s happening: There are two policy options that the Fed can use to address elevated inflation. For the first quarter, Lowe’s said overall sales fell 5.5% to $22.3 billion. Home Depot missed on first quarter sales and lowered its outlook for the year after customers slowed their spending.

Persons: shouldn’t, ”, Laurence Ball, Edward Boehne, Jerome Powell, Ben Bernanke, Powell, Ball, there’s, Austan Goolsbee, “, Julian Brigden, Bernanke, ” Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Bryan Mena, Blanchard, David Goldman, Parija, Lowe’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Johns Hopkins University, ” Former Philadelphia Fed, Fed, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Yahoo Finance, Partners, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Target, Walmart, Home Depot Locations: New York, ”, Washington ,, America, California

☆ Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there's more work ahead to control inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty ImagesWASHINGTON — Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who guided the central bank and the U.S. economy through the Great Recession, thinks central bankers still have work to do to bring down inflation. Since leaving the Fed in 2014, Bernanke has been a distinguished senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. watch nowTheir paper notes that inflation has evolved since ballooning to a 40-year high in the summer of 2022. In a forum Tuesday presented by the Brookings Institution, Bernanke, Blanchard and other high-profile economists and academics discussed the root causes and what policymakers should do as they review policies for the future. The Fed only began raising interest rates in March 2022, a full year after its preferred inflation gauge eclipsed the target.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, Saul Loeb, Olivier Blanchard, Bernanke, Blanchard, Jason Furman, I'm, … Organizations: Federal Reserve, Thomas Laubach Research, Federal Reserve Board, AFP, Getty Images WASHINGTON, Former Federal, Fed, Brookings Institution, Peterson Institute for International Economics, of Economic Advisers, Harvard Locations: Washington , DC, U.S

☆ Former Fed Chair Bernanke argues economy must slow further to bring down inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation has cooled in the past several months, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the Consumer Price Index, though some Fed officials have said that it’s not cooling fast enough. Indeed, the labor market remains on strong footing. “Overheating in the labor market has played a minor role but an increasing one over time. Overall inflation crept up throughout that year, then the Fed began to raise interest rates in March 2022 from near zero. Despite the failures of three regional banks since March, the Fed still raised interest rates two more times during that period.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, ” Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Blanchard, they’re, Mary Daly, ” Daly, isn’t Organizations: DC CNN, Former Federal, Fed, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Washington, Washington ,, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Opinion | Government Budget Deficits Can Pay for Themselves
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Now some other economists have demonstrated a second mechanism by which a government could run deficits and never have to pay for them. Unlike Blanchard’s mechanism, it doesn’t depend on the relationship of interest rates to economic growth. Their research came out last month as a working paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Can Deficits Finance Themselves?” is the paper’s provocative title — evoking, to me anyway, the Laffer Curve theory that tax cuts can pay for themselves. The economists concluded that “deficits contribute to their own financing via two channels.” First, they can accelerate economic growth, which generates more tax revenue.

☆ Inflation is falling. But the days when prices rose just 2% may never return
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.

Central banks might make some progress toward their inflation targets by raising interest rates and managing demand, Morgan Stanley chief executive James Gorman said at the Reuters Next conference in New York. Central banks, by managing demand through interest rates, could probably "bring inflation down to around four percent. But he also nodded beyond the world's central banks to a needed supply-side solution to rising prices. So far, and particularly in the United States, the actions of central banks have not had an appreciable impact on core elements of the economy, particularly the job market. "I would be surprised if central banks officially moved the target, but they might decide to stay higher than it for some time."

A debate on lifting central banks' inflation targets re-surfaced this week - feeding speculation about just how much economic pain monetary policymakers are willing to inflict to drag decades-high inflation back to largely arbitrary 2% goals. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist and long-term advocate of higher inflation targets Olivier Blanchard thinks 3% could and probably should be the new 2%. That prodded central banks into extraordinary asset purchases, negative interest rates or both just to try and get inflation back up to 2%. And counter-intuitively for some he emphasised that higher inflation would not imply looser policy. So good and bad news - a potentially more balanced economy, with better wage distribution but higher nominal interest rates that may spook financial markets trying to parse the trajectory for Fed or European Central Bank interest rates years hence.

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